Let's take an educated guess at what will happen in the field of digital video editing this year. Using a measure of prognostication mixed in with a bit of top-secret inside information, Charlie White tries to repeat his perfect 10-for-10 prediction record for 2000.

Well, here I go, out on a limb once again. But this is the fun part of being a columnist! And, to make it even more precarious, I'll revisit this column twelve months from now, and we'll see how I did. Maybe, if I think clearly enough, and I stare into this crystal ball long enough, I'll be able to match the 10-for-10 record I had for 2000. Even if I don't, read along -- maybe I'll tell you something you didn't already know -- and then if I'm all wrong, at the end of the year you can make fun of me.

First, since computers haven't exactly been selling like hotcakes for the past few months, it's easy to predict there will be a major price war between computer manufacturers. If you've been holding off buying that shiny new 1 GHz+ Wintel box or that cool new Mac G4, wait a month or two and you'll see prices for these machines plummeting like you've never seen before. Why is this? Mountains of inventory are piled up in warehouses across the world right now, and few takers are lining up with plastic in hand. For good reason, too: There's just no good excuse for the majority of computer users (running business apps) to upgrade to a faster chip right now. On-line bandwidth has fallen so far behind processor speed that users wonder why they should upgrade just so they (and their rocket-fast computers) can wait around for turtle-slow Web pages to load. However, we digital video jockeys have an entirely different scenario: If you're creating composites in After Effects or doing any rendering whatsoever, the more megahertz, the merrier. Fire sale, everybody! Pick 'em up while they're hot!

Speaking of bandwidth, what will happen to this problem we're having where even though lots more people have access to broadband connections than last year at this time, the connections are usually just no damn good? Expect to see fiber optic broadband connections to the home available in some areas, for reasonable prices, by the next time the ball drops in Times Square. This will be the beginning of an entirely new era in content creation, where truly fast, HDTV-quality streaming video will be commonplace. Now this is not to say that the fiber optic phenomenon will be widespread yet, but you'll be hearing lots more about this as the year progresses, starting with companies like Lucent.

Now it's time to really go out on a limb. I predict that before the end of the year, Apple will decide to abandon Motorola and all its vicissitudes and find another chip to power its new OS X. Now which chip do you think they'll pick? My money is on AMD and its new processors that are smoking anything Intel has right now. Jobs and his acolytes can only blather on so long calling slow chips fast, basing that fiction on one or two filters in Photoshop that run faster on a Mac. Nobody is buying that propaganda any more, and Apple is looking around at alternatives. By December 31, 2001, Apple will announce a port of OS X to Intel/AMD chips. Of course, it'll take longer than that to port OS X to Wintel, but Jobs will announce it with much fanfare, hoping that by then, we all will have forgotten all that stuff he said about all those other chips being so much slower.

How about processor speed? Look for a processor that can fly at 2.5 GHz by the end of the year, and expect it to come from AMD. Yep, you heard it here first.

What about HDTV? While broadcasters and the FCC continue to fuss and fight about broadcast standards, well-heeled viewers will do the end-around and receive most of their HDTV signals via satellite. Prices get more and more reasonable for satellite dishes every day, and the prices of HDTV sets are coming down, too. Expect prices to get even more reasonable. Keep an eye on Sony -- when that company finally releases its already-delayed line of HDTV sets this year, that will be your cue that the first level of critical mass has been reached. When this happens, we all need to start thinking even more seriously about editing HD video. As of now, this is possible only on big-iron editing systems, but recent releases like Pinnacle's CineWave HD show us that by the end of 2001, HDTV editing will be available for under $20K.

I have one more Mac prediction: I don't think most Mac users are going to like OS X very much. Like the Mac Cube, high expectations and good looks don't necessarily mean a product is going to be successful. On Usenet and message boards, I've never heard so much whining about anything as I've heard about the Beta of OS X. But c'mon Mac fans, think different! It's different! Well, for most Mac fanatics, I predict they will think different for a while and then decide that different sucks. New Coke, anyone?

Expect to see competition getting even more fierce in the nonlinear editing market. I predict that Avid will finally decide to lower prices on its high-end editing systems. Its awesome Symphony editor will be the first to have its price cut to below the $100K mark, with its cousin Avid|DS following close behind. With low-end editing products like the Matrox RT2000 sinking to well below the $1K mark, it's going to be hard for companies like Avid to keep luxuriating in that cushy $100,000-per-unit feather bed they've been lying around in for the last decade. Keep in mind: if a rising tide lifts all boats, then a receding tide lowers all boats, too.

So what does this talk of a "post-PC era" mean to us digital video editors? Well, not much yet. But take a look at Play's Palm Producer to get an idea of the future implications here. It's nice to be able to log your shots in the field, and it's going to be even more fun to edit entire segments on a Palm, or maybe even on a cell phone. But that's not going to happen this year. However, expect to see lots more notebook editing products in 2001.

And finally, what about that mysterious "IT" machine, code-named "Ginger?" Many say it's going to be bigger than the Web. But what is "IT"? If you saw the movie Chicken Run, remember the character named Ginger -- the chicken who could fly all along but didn't know it until almost the end? That'll give you a clue as to what this thing is supposed to do. It's a special kind of scooter that amounts to a portable personal helicopter. Yeah, right. I predict nothing will happen with this idea for the entire year of 2001. The whole thing scares the bejeezus outta me, anyway. Think of it -- judging from the laughable driving skills of most of the general public, the idea of those imbeciles hopping onto their new personal helicopters has me wanting to get under the covers and hide until this whole nonsensical notion goes away.

Charlie White has been writing about new media and digital video since it was the laughingstock of the television industry. A technology journalist and columnist for the past eight years, White is also an Emmy-winning producer, video editor and shot-calling PBS TV director. Talk back -- Send Chazz a note at cwhite@digitalmedianet.com.