OK, OK. I know. Everybody is making predictions about what will happen in the year 2000. (Why do we always have to say "the year" 2000? That's the last time you'll see that from me.) Well, let me join in on the predictions bandwagon, because after all, I am a writer, and that's just one of the things that writers do -- make predictions for the new year.
First, I will predict that DigitalVideoEditing will experience no further Y2K problems. Further? Much to our chagrin, we woke up on New Year's Day and noticed that, lo and behold, on our News page the automatic date thingy was saying it was "the year" 100. Hey, I didn't know they had digital video in 100. Oh, yeah, I guess they didn't. So we had a slight Y2K problem on our hands. But it was fixed right away. So, I predict no further Y2K problems, even on February 29th, the current favorite of the fraidy-cat/sky-is-falling crowd.
Beyond that, what about digital video editing predictions? Let's get right to it. The main advance we will see in 2000 will be bandwidth on one side and compression on the other. More about compression later -- I'm saving that whopper for last. Bandwidth? That goes for inside computers and out as well. By the end of the year, it will seem as if everybody has broadband connections to the Web, so we editors will be thinking about compression and content issues for Web distribution much more than before. As for the chip wars being fought inside our computers, Intel's chips will continue their fight against AMD's mighty Athlon chips, with Athlon seeing a big speed lead by year's end because of their 200MHz bus speed versus Intel's lowly 133MHz. I also expect to see both Intel and AMD hitting well beyond the gigahertz level before 2000 is done.
On the Mac side, I don't believe that company's PR flacks when they blather about the twelve month process of rolling out OS X. My prediction: OS X by 2002 at the earliest. Sure, something will be released before then, but I don't think it'll be anything a real broadcast editor would want to depend on for a livelihood. Remember how long it took Windows NT to mature into something usable? It first surfaced in 1992 as Windows NT 3.1, but it wasn't worth a damn until NT 4 was released years later. Sure, NT 3.1 was better than Windows 3.1, but that's not saying much.
But the Mac isn't just sitting around waiting for OS X, either. I predict huge profits for Apple when mobs of consumer-level video enthusiasts snap up iMacs to edit that footage of Junior's first steps and cousin Thelma's Wedding of the Millennium. The cute little iMacs are just too fun to do without, especially if you have a DV camera -- just plug in and start editing. I'm thinking of getting my little six-year-old daughter one for some editing hijinks. And what about that gorgeous editing and compositing software from Apple, Final Cut? You'll see more phenomenal growth for it as it starts nipping at the heels of the king of that market segment, Adobe Premiere. Poetic justice, considering that the creator of Premiere and Final Cut are both the same person, Randy Ubillos.
Look for Media 100 to continue its Web initiative with more innovative ways to get your video out of the camera and on to the Web. Meanwhile, Quantel will make more strides toward becoming less proprietary, while discreet moves its edit* line of vid-cutters into the waiting arms of high-end smoke* and flame*. They'll be blurring the lines between each other so much this year that before the ball drops next December 31st it'll be hard to tell which one is which.
Finally -- and this is the biggest one of all -- I predict a major breakthrough in compression technology, and I mean a major, earthshaking, ultra-wow leap. High definition TV signals will suddenly be able to be sent through regular phone lines, and the technology will all be done with software. It's going to change the DV world as we know it.
Happy New Year, everyone!
Charlie
White has been writing about digital video editing since it was
the laughingstock of the post-production industry. He's an Emmy award-winning
producer and director for PBS, and producer of this Web channel. Got
some predictions of your own? Send Chazz a note at cwhite@digitalmedianet.com.
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